Calling with a drawing hand
In Texas hold’em you often face a bet while holding a hand that is not yet the best but could become it, such as four cards to a flush. Whether to call depends on two numbers: your chance of completing the hand, and the price the pot is offering you.
Pot odds
Equity needed = amount to call ÷ (pot + amount to call)
The pot here includes your opponent’s bet. If the pot is 100 and you must call 20, you risk 20 to win 120 in total, so you need to win at least 16.7% of the time to break even. Expressed as a ratio, the pot offers 5 to 1.
Your equity from outs
Outs are the unseen cards that make your hand. With 47 unseen cards after the flop and 46 after the turn:
- Flop, two cards to come: chance = 1 − ((47 − outs) × (46 − outs)) ÷ (47 × 46)
- Turn, one card to come: chance = outs ÷ 46
The rule of 2 and 4 approximates this: multiply outs by 4 on the flop and by 2 on the turn.
Worked example
You hold a flush draw (9 outs) on the flop. The pot is 100 and you face a call of 20:
| Result | Value |
|---|---|
| Your equity | 35.0% |
| Equity needed | 16.7% |
| Pot odds | 5.0 to 1 |
| Rule of 2 and 4 | 36% |
| Expected value of calling | +22.0 |
Your 35% chance is well above the 16.7% you need, so calling is profitable in the long run. The expected value assumes no further betting and that you see both cards.
Common outs
| Draw | Outs | Flop | Turn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | 31.5% | 17.4% |
| Flush draw | 9 | 35.0% | 19.6% |
| Flush plus open-ended straight draw | 15 | 54.1% | 32.6% |
| Gutshot straight draw | 4 | 16.5% | 8.7% |
| Two overcards | 6 | 24.1% | 13.0% |
Beyond basic pot odds
- Implied odds: if you hit, you may win more on later streets. That extra can justify calls that look slightly too expensive.
- Reverse implied odds: some outs complete your hand but also give your opponent a better one, so they are not clean outs.
- Flop to river: the flop percentage assumes you see both the turn and the river. If your opponent is likely to bet again on the turn, compare the turn price with one-card odds instead.
Poker involves real money risk. Play within limits you can afford to lose.