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Framingham risk score: your chance of heart disease or stroke in 10 years

Estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease with the 2008 Framingham general risk equation from age, cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking and diabetes.

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Your inputs
Sex
years

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mmHg

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Results

10-year cardiovascular risk

10.2%

10 to 20%: intermediate risk
Chance of avoiding a cardiovascular event over 10 years
89.8 %
Total to HDL cholesterol ratio
4.3
Below 3.5 is considered optimal

This calculator is for general information and education. It is not medical advice and does not replace the judgment of a doctor, nurse or pharmacist who knows the full clinical picture.

What the Framingham score estimates

The Framingham Heart Study began in 1948 in Framingham, Massachusetts, and has followed thousands of residents and their children ever since. Its data produced the first risk equations for heart disease. This calculator uses the general cardiovascular risk equation published by D’Agostino and colleagues in 2008, which estimates the 10-year chance of a first cardiovascular event, including coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease and heart failure.

Who it applies to

Adults aged 30 to 74 without known cardiovascular disease. It is not designed for people who already had a heart attack or stroke, who are at high risk anyway, nor for people with very high cholesterol from familial hypercholesterolemia.

Inputs

  • Age and sex
  • Total and HDL cholesterol, in mg/dL, or mmol/L
  • Systolic blood pressure, and whether it is treated
  • Smoking and diabetes

The equation combines the logarithms of the continuous values with sex-specific coefficients, then converts the result into a 10-year risk using the baseline survival of the study population.

Example

A 55-year-old man who does not smoke and has no diabetes, with a total cholesterol of 213 mg/dL, HDL of 50 mg/dL and an untreated systolic blood pressure of 120 mmHg, has a 10-year risk of about 10.2%, in the intermediate range. If he smoked, his risk would rise to about 19%.

Interpreting the result

  • Below 10%: low risk; keep a healthy lifestyle.
  • 10 to 20%: intermediate risk; discuss lifestyle changes and whether treatment is useful.
  • 20% or more: high risk; treatment of blood pressure and cholesterol is usually recommended.

Limits

The Framingham population was mostly white and middle-class, so the score can overestimate risk in some groups and underestimate it in others. US guidelines now use the pooled cohort equations or the AHA PREVENT equations, which may give different results. Treat this score as one input to a conversation with your doctor, who will also consider family history, kidney function, weight and other factors.

Frequently asked questions

What does the Framingham risk score predict?

The 2008 general cardiovascular equation estimates the chance of a first cardiovascular event over 10 years: coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease or heart failure. It applies to adults aged 30 to 74 without existing cardiovascular disease.

What counts as high risk?

Below 10% is usually considered low, 10 to 20% intermediate and 20% or more high. Your doctor combines the score with other factors, such as family history, kidney disease or coronary calcium, to decide on treatment.

Is this the same as the ACC/AHA calculator?

No. US guidelines use the pooled cohort equations or, more recently, the American Heart Association's PREVENT equations, which estimate risk with different variables. The Framingham score remains widely used and tends to give higher estimates.

How can I lower my risk?

Not smoking, controlling blood pressure and cholesterol, staying active, eating a healthy diet, keeping a healthy weight and managing diabetes all lower the risk. Medications such as statins are considered when the risk is elevated.

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Results are estimates provided for information purposes. They do not replace professional advice.