Judging pancreatitis severity
Acute pancreatitis ranges from a mild illness that settles in a few days to a severe disease with organ failure and a high risk of death. In 1974 John Ranson, a surgeon in New York, identified 11 early findings that predicted a severe course. Despite newer scores, the Ranson criteria remain widely taught and used.
The 11 criteria (non-gallstone pancreatitis)
On admission:
- Age over 55
- White blood cell count above 16,000/mm³
- Blood glucose above 200 mg/dL
- LDH above 350 U/L
- AST above 250 U/L
Within the first 48 hours:
- Fall in hematocrit of more than 10 percentage points
- Rise in blood urea nitrogen (BUN) of more than 5 mg/dL
- Calcium below 8 mg/dL
- Arterial PaO₂ below 60 mmHg
- Base deficit above 4 mEq/L
- Fluid sequestration above 6 liters
Each criterion present scores 1 point, for a maximum of 11.
Interpreting the score
| Score | Severity | Approximate mortality |
|---|---|---|
| 0–2 | Mild | about 2% |
| 3–4 | Severe | about 15% |
| 5–6 | Severe | about 40% |
| 7 or more | Severe | close to 100% in the original series |
Modern intensive care has lowered these figures, but a score of 3 or more still identifies patients who need close monitoring, often in a high-dependency or intensive care unit.
Worked example
A 62-year-old (1 point) arrives with a white count of 18,000/mm³ (1 point). At 48 hours, the calcium has fallen to 7.6 mg/dL (1 point). The Ranson score is 3: severe pancreatitis, with an estimated mortality of about 15%.
Limits
- The 48-hour delay. The full score is only available two days after admission, when early treatment decisions have already been made.
- Gallstone pancreatitis. Ranson published different thresholds for gallstone disease in 1982 (for example age over 70 and white cells above 18,000).
- Newer tools. The BISAP score can be calculated within 24 hours, and the revised Atlanta classification (2012) defines severity by persistent organ failure over 48 hours. Many guidelines now recommend those, along with a CRP above 150 mg/L at 48 hours.
This calculator is for general information and education. It is not medical advice and does not replace the judgment of a doctor, nurse or pharmacist who knows the full clinical picture.